Blue Barn Wealth Mid-Quarter Market Update
After declining throughout much of the first half of the year, July brought improved returns in domestic markets. The S&P 500 saw a 9.11% return in July, its best month since November 2020. July also saw another month of higher than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, a widely expected 0.75% interest rate hike, a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data that missed expectations and mixed earnings results. In August, the July inflation data was released and remained unchanged (0.0%) month-over-month and rose 8.5% year-over-year, below the consensus estimates of 0.2% monthly and 8.7% annually.
Markets
May was fairly volatile for major US equity indexes, featuring interest rate hike uncertainty, persisting inflation, a mixed earnings picture (especially for retailers), and soaring energy prices. But the final trading days of May sent the S&P 500 into slightly positive territory for the month and ended a 7-week losing streak – the longest since 2001.
June featured weakness in major U.S. market indexes, lower government bond prices (pushing yields higher), and price dips in many major commodities. In July, the yield curve inversion continued, with 2-year Treasury notes having a higher yield than 10-year Treasury notes.
Earnings results for the second quarter have been mixed, with some corporate results being on the soft side. There have been some positive surprises too, but the number and magnitude of positive earnings surprises are below their five-year averages. Earnings results have been strong in the energy sector amid higher pricing, with some US energy companies topping analyst estimates.
The 2-year and 10-year yield curves remain inverted in August.
Inflation & Interest Rates
In May, the Consumer Price Index had an annualized rate of 8.3%, near 40-year highs, but down from the March index of 8.5%. As a result, we saw the Federal Reserve raise the Federal Funds interest rate by 0.50%, a sizable move given that 0.25% changes is more common. At the time, the Fed Chairman suggested that the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) was not considering a 0.75% interest rate hike. However, at the June meeting, the Fed increased the overnight lending rate by 0.75%, the largest hike since 1994.
The June consumer inflation data showed a 9.1% increase versus one year ago, the highest since November 1981, with gasoline and food pricing remaining elevated. In response at the end of July, the FOMC raised rates an additional 0.75%.
At the end of July, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that the Fed funds have a target range of 3.0% – 3.50% by the end of 2022. The fed funds rate is 2.25 – 2.50% after July’s rate hike. So, this commentary indicates a more gradual pace of rate hikes at the September, November, and December meetings (ranging from 0.25% – 0.50%). Chairman Powell also noted that he does not believe the United States is in a recession and that future rate hikes and the pace of such rate hikes will be data-dependent. The next interest rate decision will take place on September 21st.
Energy and gasoline were the main driving factors for the slight downtick in consumer inflation for July, with declines also showing up in apparel, used cars/trucks, and transportation services. Food prices, however, remained high in July, and they are a critical component of consumer pricing. Shelter (which includes rent) was steady, at 0.1% less than June’s data. The full report from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) is here. On the wholesale side of things, a similar decline was observed, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling 0.5% in July. However, pricing is still higher by 9.8% year-over-year.
The upcoming CPI data releases will be important, as the yearly cost of living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security will be announced on October 13, 2022. Some estimates place the COLA increase as high as 9.6% to 10%, but it could be slightly less, depending on what happens with inflation in the next few months.
Housing Affordability
Housing remains strong, with an inventory shortage continuing at about half of pre-COVID levels. The inventory shortage could ease, however, with June inventory 19% higher than the year prior and the median listing price hitting a fresh record high of $450,000.
The big picture for housing remains solid overall, and the current landscape is much different than in 2008, as the vast majority of American mortgages are presently fixed-rate mortgages. In 2006-07, there was a much higher number of adjustable-rate mortgages, many of which were subprime. Consequently, if a housing slowdown were to occur, it’s likely foreclosures and forced sales would be minimal in comparison to 2007.
However, a topic of interest going forward will be the percentage of new mortgages that are ARMs. Demand for adjustable-rate mortgages has increased recently, as price-sensitive borrowers try to lower their monthly expenses via these products. Of course, higher interest rates in the future could ultimately affect these borrowers adversely when their mortgage interest rates start adjusting.
GDP
Second quarter GDP data was released during the last week of July, which showed a contraction of 0.9% quarter-over-quarter (annualized). The technical definition of a recession is two sequential quarters of GDP contraction, which has now occurred as both Q1 and Q2 saw a contraction in GDP. Even so, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, and many analysts say it is different this time, and we are not in a recession.
The National Bureau of Economic Research is the official scorekeeper of U.S. recessions. The bureau defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
The recession debate is a fierce one. In fact, Wikipedia has blocked new users from editing its recession page because people keep changing the definition.
The Consumer
Consumer sentiment has soured heavily this year per the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the trend continued for the June reading. Conversely, June retail sales rose 1.0% month-over-month–beating expectations for a 0.9% rise. Keep in mind, however, that the data is not adjusted for inflation, which increased by 1.3% month-over-month. Some analysts could interpret the data as marginally negative, especially when higher consumer debt levels are factored into the equation. More recently in early August, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index showed some signs of optimism, increasing 3.6 points to 55.1. This beats expectations of a 1-point increase and stands as a three-month high, following the Consumer Sentiment index hitting a record low of 50.00 in June.
It appears that falling gasoline prices have eased the minds of many consumers and their household members.
In addition, the VIX Index, widely known as the “Fear Index” and a measure of how volatile the market is, fell sharply last week to 19.52, well below the highs reached earlier in 2022. This drop indicates investors expect market volatility to remain low in the near term.
Takeaways
As of this writing, the S&P 500 made its low for the year (so far) on June 16th, closing at 3,666.76. It’s now above 4,300, having risen 12% in the last month. Interest rates are projected to rise further this year, but since these increases are already anticipated, they appear to already be priced into the markets.
We’re not sure where equities markets will go for the remainder of the year, which is why we take the long-run view of investments for our clients. The superior performance in July is a reminder why we recommend staying invested during market downturns.
We appreciate the trust you place in us, and we are here to help however we can.